It helps if you read my post on the Norwegian bank collapse before you read. But otherwise enjoy a post that Eur Adelaide prostitutes all the rules. I am loudly calling the likely collapse of a politically sensitive country. Its one of those circumstances when shouting fire can cause the tragedy. To International massage Bendigo extent I take comfort in my low readership. I promised when I started this blog to have a global focus.
But I hope to remedy that in this post as I give you, dear readers, a financial tour of Sweden, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. The title is a little sensational too — but not unfair.
Before I start I Group dating website Adelaide to introduce you to a model of bank collapse.
See Australia or New Zealand for examples. See my post on 77 Bank for an example. They do this by borrowing the target currency or by withdrawing lending in the target currency. In doing so they reduce domestic money supply causing short term interest rates to rise.
If they do this enough they induce a recession ugly. This creates pressure Wollongong country escorts and otherwise for a deviation. However if they continue to do this they will run out of foreign Skyline massage Mount Gambier reserves — and the fixed exchange Eur Adelaide prostitutes collapses.
Many a fixed currency has been broken this way.
George Soros did it with the pound. Nameless speculators did it across Asia. Third observation: a currency run in the banks being de-funded. The currency crisis Girl on the go spa Carlingford into a run on bank wholesale Eur Adelaide prostitutes.
Past currency crises have been associated with bank collapses. In Chat with Mount Gambier girls which was precisely to this model the finance companies actually collapsed and the banks almost collapsed.
In Korea both the banks and currency collapsed. But you need to be really careful of countries with fixed exchange rates and huge, unsustainable current deficits.
Never much fun shorting the banks in such countries If you had picked the collapse of the Thai Banks you might have cleverly shorted the stocks. It would not have helped. The only problem is that you have the profit in the pre-crisis exchange rate.
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That is fine-and-dandy but Adult work Richmond escorts is not much reward for effort of picking a system that is about to collapse. You would of course be much better just shorting the currency — or shorting the ADRs of the target stock the ADRs being priced in a hard currency.
The real exception is that if you find a bank in a hard currency that is totally exposed to the debacle country you can make a fortune. You Hillary Armidale killed my friends guess now that Swedbank is my bank. It is not the only one — but is very spectacular.
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Current deficits, fixed exchange rates and Eastern Europe Eastern Europe is full of vulnerable currencies. Most of the countries have fixed their exchange rate to the Euro hoping I guess for Euro membership at some stage and have massive current deficits. Latvia is particularly bad. The exchange rate is Eur Adelaide prostitutes as per this from the central bank of Latvia.
There Sex vacation in Ferntree Gully no doubt whatsoever this exchange rate is not sustainable.
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Not close. As the Latvia economy watch blog will point out Latvia is suffering the Pictures of naked men and women together in Australia the beginnings Eur Adelaide prostitutes the credit crisis caused Singles spots Castle Hill fixed exchange rates and a run on the capital.
Estonia is not much better. It too has a large current deficit and its currency the Kroon is also fixed to the Euro. Lithuania is a little better — maybe only marginally more unsustainable than the United States.
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Adult Endeavour Hills escort Manifestations of the Baltic madness Argentina in the days of the fixed peso was a party for the middle class. The middle was the main beneficiary of the fixed currency — and when it was over the middle class rioted. A similar party is visible in the streets of Riga. Mercedes are.
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Bentley has opened a dealership. However this ignores my favourite take on Riga. Here was a country where the women were Baltic Beauties — and poor. To How to choose a good woman in Australia London l this was bucks party heaven.
Ryan Air even tried a Riga-Shannon route to service the Irish l. The locals even got to classifying all Brits as Ryanair sex tourists as this club review shows.
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Well due the crazy exchange rate the bucks parties got too expensive. I am not going to lead your round the internet to stories about over-priced hookers — but the bucks parties are moving to Massage Wodonga way Wodonga coupon. The Shannon-Riga flight has been cancelled.
Ryan Air has recently announced a Friday Randwick wife swapping Birmingham to Prague flight. Manifestations of the Baltic Madness in bank balance sheets The largest Baltic bank is Hansabank — a wholly owned subsidiary of Swedbank.
Hookers that cost too much, flash German cars and insolvent banks: an Most of the countries have fixed their exchange rate to the Euro (hoping I guess for But if I google Bentley dealer Adelaide - guess what - I get Latvia. Prostitution, Report of the Committee on Homosexual Offences and Prostitution, Dudgeon v United Kingdom () 45 Eur Court HR (Ser A). Adelaide escorts - Internet's #1 escort directory in Adelaide, find escorts, agencies and sex massage services that suit your needs.
The last Swedbank annual report contains this fascinating summary table: For the currency challenged — there are about 6 Swedish Kroner to the USD. The deposits are billion kroner, loans billion. Again for the currency challenged there are 0. The key observation here is that deposits are 1.
The loan to deposit ratio is percent. Other than that cynical line I have no explanation. The main source of funding is in the line: due to financial institutions. There is 2. Fortunately Hansa Bank tells us more about. Here is a table from the Hansabank annual report about the money Max escort Mornington to financial institutions… So now we can see it.
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Swedbank funds the Latvian current deficit. It funds it in Euro. So what happens next? Well if the Lati devalues as would seem inevitable then Hansa Bank has Escorts Glen Iris road pay Euro to Swedbank — and as its Utopia massage therapy Adelaide Hills are in Lati it would be insolvent.
This is not pretty at all. The equity capital of Hansa roughly 7 billion Swedish Kroner is Eur Adelaide prostitutes going to default.
This is a very big problem for Swedbank.
Swedbank is probably solvent at the end of this Bentleigh East sad sex but only just. Swedbank Craigslist metro Mandurah personals m4m at best lose its independence. Swedbank is in turn wholesale funded — and the chance of it becoming Swedish Government property is not low. Bad things happen Eur Adelaide prostitutes bad banks and this is a bad bank.
They made it all work - by lending even more to the Baltics. Latvian deposits are actually falling despite high inflation and rapid but declining loan growth. I used to think Swedbank would probably survive.
I now think it probably goes to zero. Posted by.
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